It has mostly been a one-way street for markets that have moved up sharply since July. The front-line indices - the S&P BSE Sensex and the Nifty50 - have gained 6.7 per cent and 7.3 per cent, respectively, in the past three months. The rally in mid- and small-caps has been sharper, with both indices surging 14 per cent and 9 per cent, respectively, during this period. This sharp run has made analysts at Jefferies cautious.
The challenge for the RBI in 2024 is likely to be less about containing elevated inflation and more about curbing excessive financial market exuberance and a 'problem of plenty', notes Sajjid Chinoy, Chief India Economist JP Morgan.
Online travel portals are flooded with flight and train bookings, hotels teeming with requests for accommodation, and spiritual merchandise on e-commerce platforms is selling like hotcakes. As the consecration ceremony of Ram Mandir in Ayodhya on January 22 draws near, Indians across the country are putting their travelling boots on as the temple frenzy catches on. India's largest travel technology (traveltech) platform MakeMyTrip (MMT) has witnessed a substantial four-fold increase in bookings for Ayodhya compared to the previous year.
The 30-share Sensex closed at 27,112 up by 481 points whereas the Nifty ended higher by 139 points at 8,115.
From the Sensex pack, JSW Steel, Tata Steel, NTPC and UltraTech Cement emerged as major winners, closing the day with a gain of up to 3.33 per cent. On the other hand, Asian Paints, ITC, L&T and SBI were the laggards, ending the session up to 3.95 per cent lower. Of the 30 Sensex stocks, 14 closed the day in green, while on the 50-stock index Nifty 25 scrips ended with gains.
Global funds, according to Christopher Wood, global head of equity strategy at Jefferies, are now beginning to pay more attention to India with the market now offering 30 companies with a market capitalisation over $25 billion.
'Historically, the markets tend to perform well during election years as governments aim to increase spending and call attention to growth.'
'Yet the market didn't do all that badly because it was cushioned by domestic inflows.'
The US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, quarterly earnings of corporates and domestic macroeconomic data will influence trading in the equity market in a holiday-shortened week ahead, analysts said. Foreign funds' trading activity, monthly automobile sales data and global trends would also guide market movement this week, they added. Markets would remain closed on Monday on account of 'Maharashtra Day'.
Investors booked profit ahead of the outcome of the two-day US Fed policy meet which begins today.
The RBI has hiked repo or short-term lending rate up by 0.25 pc to 7.75 pc.
Fears that FIIs would curtail their investments in emerging markets following the Fed's tapering plan hurt sentiment.
It has been a choppy calendar year 2022 (CY22) for global financial markets amid the spectre of rising inflation that led most central banks, especially the US Federal Reserve (US Fed), to tighten their monetary policy. Most equity indices across the globe have seen a sharp fall from their respective peak levels in this backdrop. FTSE India, for instance, has corrected 16 per cent from its October peak.
'If individual stocks start falling 25% to 30% or more, then I doubt how many of them will be able to withstand that (kind of selloff). That is when you'll see panic coming in.'
HDFC, ONGC, Maruti Suzuki, HeroMoto Corp and Bajaj Auto gained the most on BSE Sensex
Indian rupee, which earlier this week touched an all-time low, is likely to remain under pressure and may test new levels as a fallout of the US Federal Reserve indicating more interest rate hikes, experts said. The aggressive rate hikes will dampen demand and increase the possibility of a recession in the US. This could accelerate the pace of capital outflows, weaken the rupee and raise the threat of imported inflation.
Bond markets, global as well as domestic, are likely headed towards hard times over the next three to six months, as higher vegetable prices, rising fuel costs, and improved wages may keep inflation hot, believe analysts, who expect the yields to hit 7.5 per cent in the near-term from the current 7.234 per cent. In this backdrop, they suggest investors can put in money in funds/instruments with residual maturity of 4 to 6 years, while longer-term investors can allocate cautiously to the longer end in the range beyond 7 years.
India's numbers have shown a reasonable amount of improvement.
Gold prices have surged nearly 18 per cent, so far, in the calendar year 2022 (CY22) to around $2,050 per ounce against the backdrop of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war and there is more headroom over the next few months, believe analysts at Goldman Sachs who expect the yellow metal to become costlier by another 25 per cent to $2,500 an ounce by the year-end. Goldman Sachs, earlier, had raised its 12-month gold price forecast to $2,150 per ounce considering that an impending US growth slowdown would lead to increased concerns of a US recession and incentivise 300 tonnes of inflows into gold ETFs. At the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine tensions, Goldman Sachs had suggested the resultant rally in commodities could deteriorate the developed market (DM) growth-inflation mix, increase concerns of a American recession, and push gold ETF inflows to 600 tonnes and, in turn, lift gold prices to $2,350 an ounce in 12 months.
M&M was the biggest loser in the Sensex chart, falling 6.39 per cent, followed by Tech Mahindra, Nestle India, Bajaj Finance, Axis Bank, ITC, JSW Steel, HDFC Bank and RIL. On the other hand, Sun Pharma, Tata Motors, Bharti Airtel, L&T and Infosys were among the winners, rising up to 2.10 per cent.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Wednesday said the country's economic growth remains a priority for the government, as inflation has come down to a manageable level. Job creation and equitable distribution of wealth remain the other focus areas, she said at India Ideas Summit. "Some of course are red-lettered (priorities), some may not be. Red-lettered ones would of course be jobs, equitable wealth distribution and making sure India is moving on the path of growth.
Gold retains gains, gain nearly 3 per cent in the past three sessions.
For one thing, US Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke was perhaps right in postponing the quantitative easing taper even though the markets had complained at that time that they were primed for some reduction in QE3 and the Fed had missed an opportunity to execute their plans without causing too much of a flutter.
IPO market hopes to come out of slump in festive season, reports Sundar Sethuraman.
Yes Bank was the biggest gainer in the Sensex pack, rallying 10.94 per cent. Other gainers included Sun Pharma, IndusInd Bank, L&T, ICICI Bank, Maruti, Bajaj Auto, Tata Motors and ONGC, rallying up to 4.01 per cent.
These investors have pumped in about Rs 6,900 crore (Rs 69 billion) in the seven trading sessions after the Federal Open Market Commission meet.
Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das on Wednesday said in the wake of appreciating US dollar, the movement of rupee has remained least disruptive as compared to its peers, and the size of foreign exchange reserve is comfortable. On a financial year basis (from April to October 2022), the rupee has appreciated by 3.2 per cent in real terms, even as several major currencies have depreciated, he said while announcing the latest set of bi-monthly monetary policy. "The story of the rupee has been one of India's resilience and stability," the Governor said while pointing out that the appreciation of the US dollar this year, which precipitated large-scale depreciation of all major global currencies including the Indian rupee, has drawn wide attention.
The second batch 12 cheetahs was on Saturday brought to the KNP from South Africa. On September 17 last year, the first group of eight cheetahs from Namibia was released into the KNP at a function by Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
As markets complete the first half of the calendar year 2022 (CY22) with a fall of around 9 per cent, the interest-rate hike trajectory by global central banks, paired with the conundrum of inflation and growth, will move the needle for the market, observe experts. Here's a quick rundown on what they'll react to over the next six months.
The announcement of the Federal Reserve sent markets to a tizzy
'We are not entirely out of the woods.' 'The broader trajectory remains tentative.' 'However, we may expect some near-term bounce.'
With the kind of money and talent that has gone into making this movie, a really good biopic of a personality like Savarkar could be made. But this film is lost in polemics, as is the case with almost every biopic and period drama today, observes Utkarsh Mishra.
'Recent underperformance notwithstanding, equities should constitute a major part of investors' financial portfolio.'
Sensex,Nifty to remain under pressure through the week.
US stocks rose more than 1% on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 coming less than 2% below its record peak set last month.
'A soft landing of the Indian economy would be a long-term positive for the equity markets.'
Gold, the safest haven amid the ongoing uncertainty, also emerged as one of the most lucrative investment options in financial year 2022-23 with an impressive return of 16.1 per cent in rupee terms, and 2.3 per cent returns in dollars. And, had it not been for the very high inflow of smuggled gold and the huge discount prevailing in the market due to high prices, the returns in gold would have been much higher, analysts said. The precious metal has consistently been delivering positive returns in India since 2016.
Sliding for the fourth straight day, the BSE Sensex shed 152 points in choppy trade on Wednesday amid mixed global cues ahead of the US Federal Reserve's policy decision.
From the Sensex pack, Mahindra & Mahindra, UltraTech Cement, Power Grid, State Bank of India, ITC, Titan, Tata Motors and ICICI Bank were among the major winners. Tata Consultancy Services, Bajaj Finance, Tech Mahindra, Asian Paints and HDFC were among the major laggards.
India's tennis ace Sania Mirza, on Saturday, was appointed as playing captain of India's Fed Cup team, which will seek to make it to Group I grade of Asia/Oceania zone in Hyderabad from April 14.
